June short term visitor arrivals were 14.1 per cent below June 2025, and the ABS notes that April, May and June all weakened relative to pre COVID levels. That ABS figure counts border crossings, not migration.
The Net Overseas Migration breakdown by visa is not in this release. Official NOM applies the 12 out of 16 month rule, so the complete June 2026 visa breakdown will not be released until 18 December 2026. The latest complete financial year comparison is therefore June 2024 versus June 2025.
Official NOM by visa group
These are migrant arrivals minus migrant departures, not visa grants or ordinary border movements.
| Visa or citizenship group | NOM 2023-24 | NOM 2024-25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent visas | 72,390 | 69,580 | -2,810 |
| Student visas | 171,310 | 108,070 | -63,240 |
| Higher education | 127,710 | 97,630 | -30,080 |
| VET | 12,060 | -3,290 | -15,350 |
| Other student | 31,540 | 13,730 | -17,810 |
| Temporary skilled | 41,530 | 35,700 | -5,830 |
| Working Holiday | 68,390 | 53,390 | -15,000 |
| Visitor visas | 68,140 | 37,740 | -30,400 |
| Other temporary visas | -5,020 | -19,750 | -14,730 |
| New Zealand citizens | 37,400 | 38,290 | +890 |
| Australian citizens | -24,980 | -17,450 | +7,530 |
| Total NOM | 429,160 | 305,570 | -123,590 |
Source: ABS Overseas Migration 2024-25. The latest rolling annual NOM subsequently fell only slightly, to 300,960 in the year ending December 2025.
What actually produced the reduction
The government reduced NOM by approximately 124,000. More than half of that reduction, 63,240, came from students.
The internal student figures are particularly important.
| Student sector | Arrivals 2023-24 | Arrivals 2024-25 | Departures 2023-24 | Departures 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher education | 146,660 | 126,270 | 18,950 | 28,640 |
| VET | 20,020 | 8,690 | 7,960 | 11,980 |
| Other student | 37,450 | 21,750 | 5,910 | 8,020 |
| All students | 204,130 | 156,710 | 32,820 | 48,640 |
Student migrant arrivals fell 23 per cent, while student departures increased 48 per cent, most strikingly for VET NOM.
That means the political narrative that temporary students generally, or private VET specifically, remain responsible for excessive NOM is already lagging behind the evidence.
Working Holiday is now exposed
Working Holiday NOM declined from 68,390 to 53,390, but it remained the second largest identifiable temporary visa contributor after students.
- Arrivals: 80,070 to 78,340, down only 2.2 per cent
- Departures: 11,680 to 24,950, up 113.6 per cent
- Net contribution: 68,390 to 53,390, down 21.9 per cent
WHM is therefore one of the few remaining sizeable, clearly visible temporary categories. This helps explain why Working Holiday rules are appearing in the current political discussion.
However, the cohort is already naturally maturing: departures more than doubled. Even without another policy intervention, WHM NOM should continue falling as the large post border reopening cohorts leave.
What is the government likely to do next
The data suggest four possibilities.
Wait for departures to reduce NOM naturally. This is the rational option. The rolling annual figure was already approximately 301,000 by December 2025, and student and WHM departures are rising rapidly. The pipeline should keep bringing NOM down without another major restriction.
Further restrict international students. This remains politically easy, but the evidence for targeting VET is weak: VET NOM is already negative. If the government still wants a large numerical reduction from students, it would have to come primarily from higher education, which still contributed approximately 97,630. This creates a conflict with the government’s apparent preference for public universities.
Tighten Working Holiday settings. WHM still contributed approximately 53,390. Possible measures include reducing repeat year eligibility, narrowing specified work pathways, limiting country caps, making third year access harder, and increasing enforcement around genuine work and employer compliance. But departures have already doubled, so the government may announce a tightening whose numerical effect was already occurring.
Target family migration, appeals or long onshore transitions. Permanent visa NOM remained stable at about 69,580 and is constrained by the migration program. Cutting partner or family pathways would be politically and legally more difficult and would not deliver an immediate reduction comparable with student restrictions.
My assessment
The government has already extracted most of the easy NOM reduction from students, visitors and the post COVID temporary pipeline. VET NOM is negative, while Working Holiday remains a visible but already declining contributor.
If the government wants NOM materially below 300,000, the remaining large levers are higher education students and Working Holiday makers. Because restricting universities conflicts with its broader policy direction, WHM may become the more politically convenient next target. This will further weaken skill shortages, particularly for small business and farming.
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