{"id":17888,"date":"2026-05-12T18:58:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T18:58:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/?p=17888"},"modified":"2026-05-12T18:58:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T18:58:36","slug":"budget-2026-international-education-migration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/budget-2026-international-education-migration\/","title":{"rendered":"INSIDE INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION \u2014 Special Budget Edition\u00a0– Budget 2026-27"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Special Edition: Budget 2026-27<\/div>\n\n\n

The Budget said the quiet part out loud<\/h1>\n\n\n

What the 2026-27 Budget funded, what it didn’t, and the financial architecture our sector now operates inside.<\/p>\n\n\n

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By Jan Karel Bejcek  \u00b7  16 May 2026  \u00b7  6 min read<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The 2026-27 Budget was never going to rewrite international education. It didn’t need to. The architecture built across 2024 and 2025 was already in place: the National Planning Level, the Genuine Student framework, the Evidence Level reclassifications, the ESOS amendments.<\/p>\n\n

What the Budget did was tell us which parts of that architecture the government is now willing to pay to enforce, and which parts of the migration system it is quietly redesigning around it.<\/p>\n\n

Visa application charge revenue is forecast to hit $6.18 billion<\/strong> in 2026-27, up from $4.66 billion the year before. A $1.52 billion year-on-year lift. Not from more applications, but from higher prices on the same applications.<\/p>\n\n

Stack the recent fee history. The student visa charge moved from $710 to $1,600 to $2,000 across roughly two years. The 485 doubled from $2,300 to $4,600 on 1 March 2026. The Passenger Movement Charge rises from $70 to $80 from 1 January 2027, worth $755 million over five years.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\n \n Visa application charge revenue<\/text>\n FORECAST, AUD BILLIONS<\/text>\n\n \n $7B<\/text>\n $5B<\/text>\n $3B<\/text>\n $1B<\/text>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n\n \n \n $4.66B<\/text>\n 2025-26<\/text>\n\n \n \n $6.18B<\/text>\n 2026-27 (forecast)<\/text>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n\n +$1.52B<\/text>\n YoY lift<\/text>\n +32.6%<\/text>\n\n \n SOURCE: BUDGET PAPER NO. 1, 2026-27<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n
Not from more applications. From higher prices on the same applications.<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n

Home Affairs received 9.48 million visa applications in 2024-25, with a 7.3 per cent refusal rate across all categories. Every application carried a non-refundable fee. None of it is returned on refusal.<\/p>\n\n

The arithmetic is straightforward. The system is collecting more money from fewer applicants, refusing a larger share of them in priority categories, and reinvesting a fraction of the revenue in new compliance and assessment functions rather than in faster, cheaper decisions. The $85.2 million to DEWR for skills assessments sits inside a system pulling $6.18 billion through the front door.<\/p>\n\n

This is not a critique of the individual measures. The trades pathway has merit. The integrity funding is a defensible policy choice. But the direction of travel is worth naming. Revenue per applicant up. Refusal rates up in priority categories. Processing times excessive. Application volumes down. Department headcount on visa processing climbing.<\/p>\n\n\n

The migration system is no longer cost-recovery. It is a revenue centre that funds its own expansion.<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

The revenue feeds the red tape<\/h2>\n\n\n
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$85.2M<\/div>\n
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Faster skills assessments<\/div>\n Up to 4,000 additional trades workers a year, mostly construction and electrical. Onshore skills assessments now delivered by Trades Recognition Australia. Entry to the workforce cut by up to six months. Claimed, not yet demonstrated.\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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$19.8M<\/div>\n
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Over four years \u00b7 Student visa integrity<\/div>\n Enhanced scrutiny of onshore and offshore student visa applications. A funded integrity arm, not a new framework.\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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$27.0M<\/div>\n
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Over two years \u00b7 Migrant worker protections<\/div>\n Teaching migrant workers about workplace protections and migration law. A worker-side measure, but one that shifts where compliance attention sits.\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<\/div>\n\n

Net overseas migration: apples and oranges<\/h2>\n\n

NOM is a residency-based measure. It counts anyone, citizen or not, who has been in Australia for 12 of the last 16 months, minus anyone who’s been out of the country for 12 of the last 16 months.<\/p>\n\n

It is not a visa grant figure. Not the permanent migration cap. Not the number of people Home Affairs let in last year. A returning Australian citizen counts. A New Zealander on the trans-Tasman arrangement counts. A student who arrived two years ago and is now on a 485 counts.<\/p>\n\n

The political conversation about “cutting migration to 225,000” is a conversation derived from a statistical artefact. The actual levers are visa caps, grant rates, and the conditions that determine whether temporary holders stay or go.<\/p>\n\n

The permanent program<\/h2>\n\n

185,000 places. Over 70 per cent reserved for skilled migrants. The headline cap hasn’t moved. The composition has.<\/p>\n\n

Onshore applicants will be prioritised over offshore in both the skill and family streams. The remaining 55,110 offshore places will mostly go to high-skilled migrants addressing long-term skill needs. The points test is being “optimised”. That is the consultation language used by the Department since the Parkinson Review.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n\n \n The structurally favoured pathway<\/text>\n ONSHORE CONVERSION NOW PRIORITISED OVER OFFSHORE<\/text>\n\n \n OFFSHORE \u00b7 CONTESTED<\/text>\n\n \n Offshore<\/text>\n 189<\/text>\n\n \n \n\n \n 55,110 offshore<\/text>\n places<\/text>\n\n \u2192<\/text>\n\n \n High-skilled only<\/text>\n\n \n ONSHORE \u00b7 STRUCTURALLY FAVOURED<\/text>\n\n \n 500<\/text>\n\n \n \n\n \n 485<\/text>\n\n \n \n\n \n 482<\/text>\n\n \n \n\n \n 186 \/ 189<\/text>\n\n \u2192<\/text>\n\n \n PR \/ Citizenship<\/text>\n\n \n PERMANENT PROGRAM \u00b7 185,000 PLACES \u00b7 70%+ SKILLED \u00b7 ONSHORE PRIORITISED IN SKILL AND FAMILY STREAMS<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n
The clients haven’t changed. The competition has.<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n

Read together, this is a quiet but substantial shift. Offshore skilled pipelines have just become a smaller, more contested pool. Onshore conversion, the 485 to 482, the 482 to 186, the 500 to 485 to 189, has become the structurally favoured pathway.<\/p>\n\n

For agents whose practices are weighted offshore, the effective grant probability for a given client profile has moved against you. The clients haven’t changed. The competition has.<\/p>\n\n

The international student layer<\/h2>\n\n

The NPL settings from August 2025, 295,000 places for 2026, remain the operating framework. No new cap. No new commission regime. No new ESOS amendments. No new student visa fee.<\/p>\n\n

What changed is the resourcing behind the existing system. $19.8 million over four years buys more decision-maker capacity, more requests for further information. Probable consequence: higher refusal rates. The student visa framework is not relaxing.<\/p>\n\n

For providers, the message is clear: the visa assessment rule will be applied more rigorously than before.<\/p>\n\n

The English language layer<\/h2>\n\n

The Adult Migrant English Program is being reformed now, with a replacement program from 2029. Flexible tuition, student supports, eligibility narrowed to those “most in need”. The language suggests a tighter rather than broader program.<\/p>\n\n

Means-testing AMEP without tightening upstream English requirements at the visa stage creates a structural mismatch. The cost of inadequate English doesn’t disappear when the program narrows. It just moves to employers, schools, and community services. ELICOS providers with AMEP contracts have a four-year planning horizon. The procurement design will matter more than the announcement.<\/p>\n\n

What is not in the Budget<\/h2>\n\n

The Budget is also defined by its absences.<\/p>\n\n