{"id":17707,"date":"2026-03-15T23:30:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T23:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/?p=17707"},"modified":"2026-03-15T23:30:09","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T23:30:09","slug":"how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/","title":{"rendered":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When people talk about high-risk student cohorts<\/strong>, Evidence Level<\/strong>, or provider risk<\/strong>, many assume that it is objective. Not necessarily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Department uses a quantitative model<\/strong> based on immigration outcomes of students linked to each provider + country of origin<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Behind the scenes, the system tracks several behavioural indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Five Key Risk Signals<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The evidence level calculation is based on five immigration outcomes<\/strong>, each with a specific weighting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Visa cancellations \u2014 25% weight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Students whose visas were cancelled after being granted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This may include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • non-compliance with visa conditions<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • attendance breaches<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • work violations<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • fraud discovered later<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Higher cancellation rates increase risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Refusals due to fraud \u2014 40% weight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This is the largest weighting<\/strong> in the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It includes cases where applications were refused due to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • fake documents<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • misrepresentation<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • fraudulent financial evidence<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • fabricated GS narratives<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Even a small number of fraud refusals can significantly raise the risk score<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      3. Standard visa refusals (excluding fraud) \u2014 10% weight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      These are typical refusals, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Genuine Student concerns<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • financial capacity doubts<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • unclear study plans<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        They carry lower weight because not all refusals indicate deliberate misuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        4. Students becoming unlawful non-citizens \u2014 15% weight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        This occurs when students:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • overstay their visa<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • fail to maintain lawful status<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • do not transition to another visa<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          This signals immigration compliance risk after arrival<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          5. Subsequent Protection Visa applications \u2014 10% weight<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          This measures how many student visa holders later apply for Protection visas (asylum claims)<\/strong>. While legitimate claims exist, high rates may indicate student visa pathway misuse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The Risk Score \u2192 Evidence Level<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          These indicators are combined into an Evidence Level Index<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The simplified thresholds are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Evidence Index<\/strong><\/td>Evidence Level<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
          Below 1.0<\/td>Level 1 (Lowest risk)<\/td><\/tr>
          1.0 \u2013 2.7<\/td>Level 2<\/td><\/tr>
          Above 2.7<\/td>Level 3 (Highest risk)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

          The Protection visa rate is added to the index<\/strong> to determine the final Evidence Level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          What This Means for Providers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Immigration risk is a data model tracking behaviour across the entire student lifecycle<\/strong>. Which means the risk exposure is shaped by the <\/strong>recruitment volume, actual vsa application and immigration decisions of their students<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          #InternationalEducation #StudentVisa #CRICOS #MigrationPolicy #EducationAgents #Compliance #Educli<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          When people talk about high-risk student cohorts, Evidence Level, or provider risk, many assume that it is objective. Not necessarily.  […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":17708,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[127],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-esos-compliance"],"yoast_head":"\nHow is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When people talk about high-risk student cohorts, Evidence Level, or provider risk, many assume that it is objective. Not necessarily.  […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Resources\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2240\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1260\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"jan karel bejcek\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"jan karel bejcek\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"jan karel bejcek\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13\"},\"headline\":\"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\"},\"wordCount\":333,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"ESOS & Compliance\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\",\"name\":\"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png\",\"width\":2240,\"height\":1260,\"caption\":\"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/\",\"name\":\"Resources\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13\",\"name\":\"jan karel bejcek\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c5414186195804013cf339072143a850cf991f212e66f228d89ecdb83c387dab?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c5414186195804013cf339072143a850cf991f212e66f228d89ecdb83c387dab?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"jan karel bejcek\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/author\/jan-bejcek\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources","og_description":"When people talk about high-risk student cohorts, Evidence Level, or provider risk, many assume that it is objective. Not necessarily.  […]","og_url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/","og_site_name":"Resources","article_published_time":"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2240,"height":1260,"url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"jan karel bejcek","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"jan karel bejcek","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/"},"author":{"name":"jan karel bejcek","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13"},"headline":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?","datePublished":"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/"},"wordCount":333,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png","articleSection":["ESOS & Compliance"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/","url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/","name":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated? - Resources","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png","datePublished":"2026-03-15T23:30:09+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/@jankarelbejcek-5.png","width":2240,"height":1260,"caption":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/how-is-immigration-risk-actually-calculated\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How is \u201cImmigration Risk\u201d Actually Calculated?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/","name":"Resources","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/54fd2c45b0fa4ad9b939dc8b36f6ec13","name":"jan karel bejcek","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c5414186195804013cf339072143a850cf991f212e66f228d89ecdb83c387dab?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/c5414186195804013cf339072143a850cf991f212e66f228d89ecdb83c387dab?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"jan karel bejcek"},"url":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/author\/jan-bejcek\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17707"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17707\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17709,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17707\/revisions\/17709"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17708"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.educli.com\/resources\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}