Student visa increase signals migration rebound despite policy tightening

A crackdown on student visas in 2024 slowed applications dramatically. However, we can see a fresh wave of overseas student applications again. 

After COVID, the former Coalition Government reopened the gates, especially for international students. The Labour Government eventually followed with tougher measures from late 2023 through to mid-2025. But the easing of those settings is now showing an impact.

In 2022, new offshore student visa applications hit an unprecedented 361,571, and then 2023 set a new record again, with 444,538 offshore applications. Reports show that refusal rates, which spiked through the second half of 2023 and all of 2024 and the offshore applications began falling into mid-2025.

And although the government promised to cut net migration during their election campaign, it recently lifted student intake caps for public universities, which encouraged recruitment, especially from markets outside China. There has also been a strong resurgence of applications from India, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

Many public universities have been placed in low-risk categories, reducing evidentiary burden and encouraging aggressive recruitment. Unsurprisingly, there was no easing for private providers, and VET and ELICOS remain under tight controls and are now under severe stress from the deliberate contraction in approvals.

However, easing the pressure creates a new problem: net migration will not fall as expected but will shift, potentially causing backlogs in temporary graduate visa programs and general skill migration applications, which are already at their maximum capacity. 

#InternationalEducation #StudyInAustralia #VisaAustralia #GovernmentPolicy #EducationSector #EthicalRecruitment #Educli