Onshore visa applications growth

Inside International Education

Issue 15. The 482 has gone onshore

8 June 2026   ·   By Jan Bejcek   ·   MARN 0965239
Last week (Issue 14), I traced four separate tightenings in the visa system that all landed in the same fortnight: the ART moving to on-the-papers decisions for most Subclass 500 refusals, the ABF national compliance operation against 407 sponsors, Brazil joining the high-demand list for the 462 program, and the GS requirement settling into a single standard across student visa applications. The pattern was that every gate is now tested. This week, Jobs and Skills Australia released its 2025 Skills in Demand Report, and the data behind that pattern is more telling than the policy text alone.

The report is the first proper post-implementation review of the SID visa since the December 2024 reforms. Buried in the figures is the most important shift for anyone working in international education or migration. The 482 has become an onshore visa.

Almost twice as many 482 grants now go to people already in Australia as to applicants offshore.

1. Onshore now dwarfs offshore

In the third quarter of 2025, Australian-based applicants accounted for roughly twice the number of 482 grants as offshore applicants. The chart in the report shows onshore grants climbing steadily from late 2023, well before the SID changes took effect. Offshore grants have flattened just above pre-pandemic levels. The trend predates the reforms, but the reforms have not reversed it.

JSA notes, almost in passing, that onshore grants typically carry lower nominated salaries than offshore grants. That is consistent with a workforce being retained at the start of a career, not recruited at the senior end.

2. The top occupations are graduate-pathway occupations

Of the top 15 occupations for SID and TSS grants in 2024-25, the recognisable names sit at the heart of the international education pipeline. Software Engineer (1,806 grants), Resident Medical Officer (2,727), ICT Business Analyst (1,149), Accountant General (952), Marketing Specialist (1,079), Mechanical Engineering Technician (1,083).

These are not occupations Australian employers fly out to recruit. They are occupations Australian employers retain from the temporary graduate cohort already working in their teams. The 482 is the conversion mechanism.

Visa grant by occupation, 2024-25
Chef (ANZSCO 351311)6,361
Resident Medical Officer2,727
Motor Mechanic (General)2,247
Software Engineer1,806
Cafe or Restaurant Manager1,683
Cook1,554
Source: Department of Home Affairs administrative data, JSA 2025 SID Report

3. Visa grant and shortage have decoupled

Chef grants jumped from 2,279 in 2023-24 to 6,361 in 2024-25. Almost a 180 per cent increase. Cook grants more than doubled to 1,554. Cafe or Restaurant Manager grants jumped from 938 to 1,683.

Chef was downgraded from national shortage to regional shortage only in the 2025 OSL. Cafe or Restaurant Manager was rated no shortage in 2023, 2024 and 2025. The CSOL is now broader than current measured shortage.

47%
of 482 grants in 2025 went to occupations in actual national shortage. Down from around 75 per cent in 2023.

4. Software Engineer appears in two streams at once

The same occupation, ANZSCO 261313, shows up in the top 15 for both the Specialist Skills Stream (285 grants) and the Core Skills Stream (608 grants). Same role, two streams. The market salary range is wide enough that some grants clear the $141,210 SSIT and others sit between the $76,515 CSIT and the SSIT.

This is what an onshore retention pattern looks like. Same role, varying experience levels, all already in the country. The Core Skills stream takes the early-career end of the same talent pool that the Specialist Skills stream takes at the experienced end.

5. Labour Agreements have nearly doubled in twelve months

There were 3,093 Labour Agreements in effect at 30 September 2024. There were 4,751 in effect at 30 September 2025. Labour Agreement grants rose from 2,641 in 2022-23 to 5,654 in 2024-25.

The Aged Care template runs at a salary concession of $51,222. The NT DAMA allows a concession to $65,037 with up to $6,503 in non-monetary benefits counted. Child Care Worker, previously only accessible under Labour Agreements, gained 492 Core Skills Stream grants this year after its CSOL inclusion. The sectors that lobby for carve-outs get them. The data confirms it works.

What this means

For migration agents, the client base is increasingly already in Australia. The work is increasingly about pathway management for existing temporary visa holders rather than offshore sponsorship advice. Retention, not recruitment.

For education providers, the value chain extends well past graduation. The TGV is not the end of the relationship. Anywhere from two to five years of further engagement is built into how graduates now transition through the 482 and onward.

For the sector overall, the SID program is doing what the Migration Strategy designed it to do at the margins. Salaries are lifting against the indexed thresholds. The composition has shifted at the edges. But the underlying flow has not been redirected. The 482 is no longer the offshore recruitment instrument it was designed as in 2018. It is now the conversion mechanism for the international education pipeline. The data is in writing.

Read the full 2025 SID Report at jobsandskills.gov.au.

Inside International Education is published weekly by Jan Bejcek, MARN 0965239. Questions or feedback, reply directly or connect on LinkedIn.

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