Inside International Education
Migration is not one number
A few weeks ago I argued that Australia’s migration debate had become a vegetable shop problem. Everything gets tipped into one basket and labelled “migration”, when the shop is actually full of different produce: different prices, different uses, different shelf lives. The latest ABS release is a good moment to take the vegetables back out of the bowl.
In 2024 to 2025, around 568,000 people arrived in Australia as migrants in the ABS sense. Of those, 363,000 were on temporary visas, 88,000 on permanent visas, 64,000 were returning Australian citizens, and 53,000 were New Zealand citizens.
That sounds enormous until you look at who they actually are.
Inside the temporary number
157,000 international students
Down from 204,000 the year before. International education generated $53.6 billion in economic activity in 2024 to 2025. Jobs and Skills Australia’s 2025 study found that only 25 to 30 per cent of recent cohorts eventually gain permanent residency. The clear majority pay full fees, support local jobs, and then leave.
78,000 working holiday makers
Mostly young people filling labour gaps in regional Australia. They stay longer and spend roughly double a standard visitor. Regional towns depend on them for both labour and local spending.
56,000 visitor-visa migrants
Staying long enough to count statistically. In 2024, international visitors spent $32.1 billion in Australia. They come, they spend, they leave.
46,000 temporary skilled workers
Brought in because employers could not fill roles locally. That requires sponsorship, occupation lists, skills assessment, English-language requirements, health and character checks, and labour market testing. Nobody just walks in.
26,000 on bridging and other temporary visas
The remaining temporary arrivals, sitting across bridging visas and other temporary categories.
Then the rest of the basket
There were 88,000 permanent visa holders who went through years of points testing, skills checks and scrutiny. 64,000 were returning Australian citizens. And 53,000 were New Zealand citizens arriving via the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement.
When someone says “too much migration”, ask them which group they want to cut. Migration is not one number. It is dozens of policy settings serving dozens of needs, collectively contributing tens of billions of dollars to the Australian economy every year.
The net number is falling, and it is falling on purpose
Net overseas migration has continued to fall. New ABS data shows NOM reached 301,000 in the year to December 2025, down 29,500 people, or 9 per cent, on the previous year. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said the figures showed NOM had fallen by more than 45 per cent from its post-COVID peak in 2023, while NOM from temporary visa holders was down 10 per cent over the year.
For international education, the figure that matters is this: NOM from international students is also down 10 per cent over the year and has now returned to pre-COVID levels.
In the December 2025 quarter alone, net overseas migration was 56,600 people, down 31,500 on the previous quarter, continuing the broader decline from the post-pandemic peak.
Australia’s population reached 27.8 million at 31 December 2025, growing by 1.5 per cent over the year. NOM accounted for 301,000 of that growth, while natural increase contributed 111,500.
Arrivals are not migration, and the ABS keeps saying so
Alongside the release, the ABS issued a reminder that net overseas migration should not be confused with Overseas Arrivals and Departures data. NOM is the official measure of migration because it captures changes in Australia’s usually resident population. Arrivals and departures data simply records border crossings.
The distinction matters for international education. Student arrivals are often cited in migration debates, but the ABS notes that arrivals data can count the same student more than once if they travel during their course. In NOM data, a student is counted when they move to Australia, and again when they leave after finishing their stay.
This is the same confusion the vegetable shop post was about. Arrivals are the door swinging. NOM is who is actually in the room at the end of the year.
The students problem, and the students solution
Burke linked the falling numbers to the Government’s migration priorities, saying the numbers of temporary visa holders and international students continue to fall as the Government prioritises the skills needed to care for the sick and elderly and to build homes.
The remark reflects an increasingly explicit tendency to view international education through a migration and workforce lens. Many international students do aspire to remain after graduation, but reducing a sector worth billions of dollars to a mechanism for fixing labour shortages will not sit comfortably with many providers.
It also captures the contradictory position students now occupy. They are criticised for their contribution to migration numbers and, at the same time, expected to help meet Australia’s future workforce needs. The result is a debate in which international students are alternately a migration problem and a skills solution.
The policy is working as designed
The decline in students’ contribution to NOM is consistent with the Government’s efforts to reduce student numbers through tighter visa settings and other interventions. Whether you read the latest figures as a migration success story or an international education challenge, they suggest those policies are now delivering their intended effect.
That is the part worth sitting with. The numbers are not falling by accident. Fewer applications, lower grant rates, and a shrinking student contribution to NOM are not a system breaking. They are a system doing exactly what it was tuned to do.
So the next time the conversation turns to “too much migration”, go back to the shop. Ask which shelf. Ask which produce. Ask which group, specifically, anyone wants to remove. The answer is almost never the one the headline implies.
#InternationalEducation #Migration #AusPol #NetOverseasMigration #StudentVisa #CRICOS #HigherEducation #AustralianImmigration
Jan Bejcek, MARN 0965239, Educli. Figures sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Department of Education, Jobs and Skills Australia (2025), and WTTC (2024). Net overseas migration and arrivals are separate measures and are not directly comparable.