Australia’s Migration Surge, Student Visa Crackdowns, and the Looming Workforce Gap
In our recent post on Australia’s permanent and long-term arrivals, we outlined the scale and significance of migration trends shaping the country. These statistics are more than just numbers, they reflect the outcomes of shifting migration policies, education demand, and humanitarian obligations.
Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics offers a telling snapshot:
- 447,620 net permanent and long-term arrivals were recorded in the 12 months leading to May 2025
- While short-term visitor numbers showed a slight net outflow, long-term arrivals are driving growth.
These figures underline Australia’s continuing appeal as a destination for study, work, and migration, but they also raise important questions in light of recent policy shifts.
The Forgotten Impact os Student Visa Pathways Shut Down
In mid-2024, the Australian Government announced a major shift under its “Closing Loopholes” initiative. The goal: to tighten migration integrity and reduce what it saw as exploitation of onshore visa pathways.
However, one area almost entirely missing from public discussion is how these changes impact ELICOS providers and, by extension, Australia’s broader international education ecosystem. Traditionally, the ELICOS sector has served as a vital pathway for students transitioning from English study into vocational or higher education. Many of these transitions occurred onshore, from visitor visas or bridging visas, allowing students to test the waters before committing long-term.
With the closure of these onshore pathways and the winding down of the COVID-era Subclass 408 Pandemic Visa, the pipeline is drying up. Many ELICOS students may now never reach their intended university or VET pathway, not due to lack of motivation — but due to policy restrictions.
Here’s what’s changed:
- From 1 July 2024, Visitor Visa holders can no longer apply for Student Visas while in Australia. This is significant, considering over 36,000 student visa applications were lodged onshore from visitor status between July 2023 and May 2024. That pathway is now closed.
- Temporary Graduate Visa (TGV) Restrictions: Holders of the TGV are also barred from applying for a Student Visa onshore. In other words, graduates wishing to continue their studies now must leave the country and apply offshore, a move likely to reduce retention of skilled, English-proficient graduates.
- Closure of the COVID Subclass 408 Pandemic Visa.
Is there a looming workforce gap from 2026 onwards?
With the expected departure of over 100,000 Subclass 408 COVID and Temporary Graduate sc485 visa holders in 2025, a significant portion of Australia’s temporary workforce is about to disappear.
These visa holders have propped up critical sectors like hospitality, aged care, retail, and cleaning services. Combine that with the drop in international student commencements (another key source of part-time labour), and we’re staring down the barrel of a potential labour shortage.
The migration data might show growth today, but the pipeline for 2026 and beyond is narrowing rapidly.
The question is simple: What’s the plan?
- How will we balance integrity with flexibility in migration?
- How can we preserve viable pathways for genuine international students?
- What solutions are being offered to ELICOS providers and regional institutions already struggling with low enrolment?
- Is there a transition plan for industries about to lose a significant casual labour force?
The current migration numbers paint a picture of success of the government policy, but that picture is incomplete without context. Behind the record arrivals are policy shifts that may bottleneck Australia’s future talent pipeline. If we’re serious about skills, workforce sustainability, and economic recovery, it’s time for an honest conversation about what comes next.
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