The grant rate is recovering. The pipeline is not.

The DHA June 2025 report (BR0097) shows the overall student visa grant rate recovered to 83.1% in FY 2024–25, up from 77.8% the prior year. On paper, stabilisation. But full-year 2025 calendar data tells a more unsettling story: visa applications were down 14% on 2024, which was itself down 21% on 2023.

According to Educli’s analysis of Department of Education data, new commencements in 2025 were down approximately 15% on 2024. The sector is running on continuing students, not fresh entrants.

Grant rates and risk tiers are moving in opposite directions.

These are two separate data points. The October 2025 grant rate shows how many applications were approved. The Evidence Level (from DHA’s PRISMS system) determines how much documentation is required — not whether an application is approved.

The critical nuance: Bangladesh had a ~95% grant rate in October 2025 because it was Level 1 at the time. It was then moved directly from Level 1 to Level 3 on 8 January 2026 — skipping the middle tier entirely. This is the most important data point in this table.

“The changes implemented for Nepal and Bangladesh are unexpected. The visa success rate for students from Nepal and Bangladesh has been exceptionally high over the past few months.”

— Ravi Lochan Singh, CEO, Global Reach (January 2026)

“The frequency of change is causing confusion among providers and agents offshore. At the very time we are trying to ensure a good start to the year intake, we appear unsure which countries we seek to recruit from.”

— Phil Honeywood, CEO, International Education Association of Australia

ELICOS hits a 20-year low. VET still −45% below 2019.

Full-year 2025 DHA data (released February 2026) shows the damage is sharply uneven across sectors. Higher education held relatively steady. ELICOS — the English language sector — is in structural crisis.

ELICOS matters beyond its own numbers. English language courses are the traditional entry ramp into higher education. When ELICOS enrolments collapse, the downstream pressure on universities and VET providers follows 12–24 months later.

$53.6B export — but the incoming cohort is shrinking.

International education generated $53.6 billion in export revenue in 2024–25 (ABS), up 5% year-on-year. That headline reflects spending by students already enrolled. With new commencements down 15% and applications down 14%, the pipeline feeding that figure will be materially smaller within 12–18 months.

Australia’s 42 universities earned $12.33 billion in international fees in 2024 — 27.3% of total gross revenue (Dept of Education Finance Tables, Nov 2025). For Group of 8 institutions, that share reaches up to 40%. Fifteen universities reported deficits in 2024 — before the January 2026 Level 3 re-rating of India and Nepal.

Five things every migration agent needs to act on now.

Three things this data demands from your practice in 2026.

1. Don’t conflate grant rates with evidence levels — they are different levers. Bangladesh had a 95% grant rate in October 2025 while sitting at Level 1. That rate will not hold at Level 3. High past grant rates do not predict future outcomes under a stricter evidence tier. Agents need to communicate this clearly to clients from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal.

2. The GS statement is the application. Country risk determines what documents to submit. What drives the individual outcome is the quality of the Genuine Student statement and financial documentation. Generic templates are being refused. The narrative must be specific, structured, and verifiable — built around the student’s actual circumstances.

3. Use DHA’s Document Checklist Tool before every lodgement. Evidence Levels change out-of-cycle without public announcement. The only reliable way to know what a country-provider combination requires at lodgement is the DHA checklist tool at immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/visas/web-evidentiary-tool. Build this into your intake process.

“The sector is increasingly relying on continuing and ‘recycled’ students, rather than a new offshore pipeline. Without a sustained flow of new entrants, the system will become increasingly unstable.”

— Educli Research, February 2026