How is “Immigration Risk” Actually Calculated?
When people talk about high-risk student cohorts, Evidence Level, or provider risk, many assume that it is objective. Not necessarily.
The Department uses a quantitative model based on immigration outcomes of students linked to each provider + country of origin.
Behind the scenes, the system tracks several behavioural indicators.
The Five Key Risk Signals
The evidence level calculation is based on five immigration outcomes, each with a specific weighting:
1. Visa cancellations — 25% weight
Students whose visas were cancelled after being granted.
This may include:
- non-compliance with visa conditions
- attendance breaches
- work violations
- fraud discovered later
Higher cancellation rates increase risk.
2. Refusals due to fraud — 40% weight
This is the largest weighting in the model.
It includes cases where applications were refused due to:
- fake documents
- misrepresentation
- fraudulent financial evidence
- fabricated GS narratives
Even a small number of fraud refusals can significantly raise the risk score.
3. Standard visa refusals (excluding fraud) — 10% weight
These are typical refusals, such as:
- Genuine Student concerns
- financial capacity doubts
- unclear study plans
They carry lower weight because not all refusals indicate deliberate misuse.
4. Students becoming unlawful non-citizens — 15% weight
This occurs when students:
- overstay their visa
- fail to maintain lawful status
- do not transition to another visa
This signals immigration compliance risk after arrival.
5. Subsequent Protection Visa applications — 10% weight
This measures how many student visa holders later apply for Protection visas (asylum claims). While legitimate claims exist, high rates may indicate student visa pathway misuse.
The Risk Score → Evidence Level
These indicators are combined into an Evidence Level Index.
The simplified thresholds are:
| Evidence Index | Evidence Level |
| Below 1.0 | Level 1 (Lowest risk) |
| 1.0 – 2.7 | Level 2 |
| Above 2.7 | Level 3 (Highest risk) |
The Protection visa rate is added to the index to determine the final Evidence Level.
What This Means for Providers
Immigration risk is a data model tracking behaviour across the entire student lifecycle. Which means the risk exposure is shaped by the recruitment volume, actual vsa application and immigration decisions of their students.
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