Australia’s Student Visa Data 2025 and What It Signals for 2026
Australia’s international education sector closed out 2025 with headline numbers that appear stable. But beneath the surface, the data tells a more complex and more concerning story.
According to the Australian Government’s Department of Education, there were 833,041 international students studying in Australia between January and October 2025, which was broadly consistent with the same period in 2024.
On paper, this suggests stability. In practice, the composition of these numbers tell far more.
What is really happening
Three data points stand out:
- New commencements are down by approximately 15% compared to 2024
- Student visa approval rates averaged around 85% in 2025
- ELICOS (English Language) has experienced a massive 37% decline
The sector is increasingly relying on continuing and “recycled” students, rather than a new offshore pipeline. This is a critical shift and without a sustained flow of new entrants, the system will become increasingly unstable.
Source country concentration
The top five source countries in 2025 remain – China, India, Nepal, Vietnam and the Philippines. Together, these countries account for approximately 57% of all international students in Australia.
However recent policy changes, risk profiling, and geopolitical or economic shocks reinforced the need for robust compliance and evidence-led recruitment strategies.
Sector-by-sector impact
ELICOS has experienced the steepest decline. This is significant because ELICOS traditionally functions as the entry point into Australia’s broader education ecosystem. When that pipeline contracts, the effects are not immediate but inevitable.
Downstream, VET and Higher Education are holding for now. However, with tightening risk settings and greater scrutiny at the visa stage, the question is not if pressure will be felt, but when.
ELICOS providers have been raising these concerns consistently. To date, policy settings have not materially shifted in response.
What this means in practice
The regulatory direction is clear:
- Genuine Student (GS) assessments are being applied more rigorously
- Financial capacity and English language evidence thresholds have increased
- Applications with weak, inconsistent, or poorly structured documentation are facing higher refusal rates
Signals for 2026
- Fewer applications
- Greater scrutiny
- A more controlled intake
What providers and agents should be doing now
For education providers:
- Review retention and progression data
- Audit agent performance and risk exposure
- Reassess delivery scope and entry pathways
For education and migration agents:
- Understand GS requirements in detail
- Strengthen evidence quality, not just volume
- Ensure advice aligns precisely with current policy settings
With agent commission reporting requirements approaching, this is no longer a future problem. Systems, records, and compliance frameworks need to be ready now, not when reporting becomes mandatory.
Next steps
If you’re looking for agent management guidance, commission reporting support, or compliance-readiness resources, explore the links below. We’ve made available free courses, templates, and practical tools designed to help providers and agents stay ahead of regulatory change www.educli.com
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